Effectively building the Offensive line
For the past few years (2016, 2017, 2018) we have had an issue on our Minnesota Vikings roster. We have had a complete lack of top shelf talent on the offensive line (OL). We have unfathomably not drafted OL early in the draft and especially have outright ignored offensive guard (OG/C). In the past 9 years here are the following drafted players for the Vikings:
2018 Brian O'Neill (2) - 15 Games Played (GP)
2018 Colby Gossett (6) - 5 GP
2017 Pat Elflein (3) - 28 GP
2017 Danny Isidora (5) - 21 GP
2016 Willie Beavers (4) - 2 GP
2015 TJ Clemmings (4) - 41 GP
2015 Tyrus Thompson (5) - 0 GP
2015 Austin Shepherd (7) - 14 GP
2014 David Yankey (4) - 6 GP
2013 Jeff Baca (6) - 4 GP
2013 Travis Bond (7) - 2 GP
2012 Matt Kalil (1) - 82 GP
2011 Demarcus Love (6) - 0 GP
2011 Brandon Fusco (6) - 90 GP
2010 Chris DeGeare (5) - 8 GP
The only players that have seen consistent playing time are Matt Kalil, Brandon Fusco, TJ Clemmings, Pat Elflein and Brian O'Neill (5 of 15). Of those players all are top 4 round players except Fusco. Of those players only 2 are interior offensive lineman (iOL). The entire purpose of this article is to show that it is both incredibly difficult to draft iOL in the bottom 3-4 rounds than it is to draft them in the top 3-4 rounds and that the majority of iOL starters are selected on Day 1 & Day 2.
Legend
Rank Capable - The player had enough starts to qualify for a rank in PFF's system
Total Graded - All players that received a grade
Top 3 Rounds - Players selected in the top 3 rounds average grades, ranks and starts
* - Pro Bowl
+ - All Pro
In 2018 the PFF grades & total starts for the interior lineman (or converted offensive tackles (OT) to OG) taken in the 2018 NFL draft were as follows:
The prize of this group was clearly Nelson who became a pro bowler as a rookie but starter level players (which for our purposes will be a around a 60 grade and top 30 ranking per PFF) were found up until the 3rd round of this draft which is typical of the remaining data. There were 0 of 10 4th to 7th round players that were average starters for our purposes. There were 5 out of 10 1st to 3rd round players that were about average starters.
In 2017 the PFF grades & total starts for the interior lineman (or converted offensive tackles (OT) to OG) taken in the 2017 NFL draft were as follows:
Considering this is Year 2 for this group, its obvious this is the worse group in the sample. Chase Roullier being the best player is a testament to the dearth of iOL in the draft. The average selection was 134.6 which was the worst in the sample. There were 1 of 11 4th to 7th round players that were average starters. There were 0 out of 4 1st to 3rd round players that were about average starters.
In 2016 the PFF grades & total starts for the interior lineman (or converted OTs to OG) taken in the 2016 NFL draft were as follows:
Blythe at 248 is clearly one of the best OL steals in recent history. Wes Schweitzer is also a notable name taken at 195 that is a starter. Evan Boehm is also a starter level player in the 4th round however this draft (2016), 2015 & 2014 are the only drafts in the seven (7) year sample with more than one (1) player in the 4th becoming starter level. There were 3 of 14 4th to 7th round players that were average starters. There were 6 out of 9 1st to 3rd round players that were about average starters.
In 2015 the PFF grades & total starts for the interior lineman (or converted OTs to OG) taken in the 2015 NFL draft were as follows:
Patriots have a habit of taking OG early and often as they've made 4 iOL selections in the past 5 drafts which makes sense because outside of those 4 rounds its a shot in the dark as we're seeing with this data. Shaq Mason has helped ensure their OL is top flight and as I've learned in another study, there are very few teams that have made the playoffs and won a Superbowl with a bottom 15 OL per PFF. There were 2 of 13 4th to 7th round players that were average starters. There were 6 out of 8 1st to 3rd round players that were about average starters.
The teams in the playoffs this past year had the following OL ranks per PFF:
Patriots - 4
LA Rams - 6
Saints - 8
Bears - 11
Eagles - 5
Chargers - 30 *
Titans - 9
Chiefs - 13
Cowboys - 14
Colts - 3
Texans - 23*
Seahawks - 18*
What do all of these teams with below average OL play have in common? Top 10 DVOA defense, one top 5 QB (who only had a top 15 DVOA defense) and two top 10-15 QBs (no.7 HOU, no.8 LAC) depending on who you ask. For those keeping score out there the Vikings had the no.4 defense and the no. 18 offense with a no.29 PFF rated OL. I wont rank Kirk Cousins, you can if you wish and draw your own conclusions about the 2019-20 season prospects.
In 2014 the PFF grades & total starts for the interior lineman (or converted OTs to OG) taken in the 2014 NFL draft were as follows:
Another draft with multiple round 4 or lower starters (Bodine, Linsley & Paradis). There were 3 of 14 4th to 7th round players that were average starters. There were 7 out of 15 1st to 3rd round players that were about average starters. Zach Martin is the sole All Pro in this draft class.
In 2013 the PFF grades & total starts for the interior lineman (or converted OTs to OG) taken in the 2013 NFL draft were as follows:
The 2013 class only featured one (1) of 16 iOL drafted in the 4th to 7th rounds becoming a viable starter although Ryan Jensen played much better in 2017 and was a starter level player. There were 3 out of 8 1st to 3rd round players that were about average starters. Travis Frederick is the sole All Pro in this draft class. Dallas came away with two All Pros in back to back drafts, that's pretty impressive. Frederick being out for the year skewed this sample because if healthy he woluldve increased the successes.
In 2012 the PFF grades & total starts for the interior lineman (or converted OTs to OG) taken in the 2012 NFL draft were as follows:
The 2012 class featured zero (0) of 16 iOL drafted in the 4th to 7th rounds becoming a viable starter. There were 5 out of 9 1st to 3rd round players that were about average starters (included Osemele). David DeCastro and Keleche Osemele were the All Pros in this draft class. Osemele is the first player out of all 7 draft classes to be an All Pro that was not selected in the 1st round.
Out of all drafts the probability of the selecting a starter in the 4th to 7th rounds is as follows:
2012 - 0/16
2013 - 1/16 (JC Tretter - 4th)
2014 - 3/14 (Bodine - 4th, Linsley - 5th, Paradis - 6th)
2015 - 2/13 (Mason - 4th, Glowinski - 4th)
2016 - 3/14 (Boehm - 4th, Schweitzer - 6th, Blythe - 7th)
2017 - 1/11 (Roullier - 6th)
2018 - 0/10
Probability - 10/94 = 10.6%
Obviously 4th & 5th round probability is not equal to 6th or 7th round. Of the 10 late round picks five (5) were 4ths, one (1) 5th, three (3) 6ths and one (1) 7th.
In terms of the successes in the 1st to 3rd round selections:
2012 - 5/9
2013 - 3/8
2014 - 7/15
2015 - 6/8
2016 -6/9
2017 - 0/4
2018 - 5/10
Probability - 32/63 = 50.8%
Interesting trait similarities amongst the 4th to 7th round successes in regards to the 3 cone drill (per Mockdraftable & NFL.com):
JC Tretter - 7.48s (87%)
Bodine - 8.26s (2%) - outlier
Linsley - n/a
Paradis - 7.6s (72%)
Mason - 7.53s
Glowinski - 7.56s (79%)
Boehm - 7.52s (81%)
Schweitzer - n/a
Blythe - 7.52s (81%)
Roullier - 7.6s (72%)
Might be worth monitoring with whoever we pick in the draft since Elflein was 27 percentile (7.94s), Jeff Allen 30 percentile (8.04s), Pocic 36 percentile (7.89s), Jeremiah Poutasi 19 percentile (8.09s) and Amini Silatolu 29 percentile (7.95s) are examples of below average 3 cone times that are or might become busts in the 1st 3 rounds.
So we've come to the point of the article. If its so unlikely to draft iOL starters in the 4th to 7th rounds why is it that our GM has made one (1) selection in the top 3 rounds since 2010 and the Patriots (seemingly the smartest organization in the NFL) have selected 2 since 2014? Having selected eight (8) iOL since 2010 in the 4th to 7th round while hitting on one (1) player, Rick Spielman's hit rate currently stands at 12.5% which is above the probability (10.6%) but considering you need 2 OG on your starting OL and the player that was a hit is now currently not on the team, one can surmise why we are in this position of having the no.29 ranked PFF OL.
In my opinion as a fan of the team, I believe it is imperative (as I've been saying for 3 years straight), that we properly/appropriately address the OL. Last year Mr. Spielman knew or should have known that there was a possibility of a OL run since in 2017 when he barely escaped with Elflein, he made the mistake of assuming that OL would be available at our original pick by trading up for a RB (Dalvin Cook). In 2016 he chose "BPA", Mackenzie Alexander, when Cody Whitehair was on the board and in 2018 for the most recent OL run he chose another DB as "BPA" when Will Hernandez was on the board.
What you have to understand is that most bad teams have bad OL play, as I've shown with the statistic on who makes the playoffs the teams with the bad OL or QBs unable to improvise most likely WILL miss the playoffs, so when the beginning of the 2nd round happens, they'll take, you guessed it, OL. So waiting means missing on the top end talent that is most likely to be All Pro or Pro Bowl level and has a greater than 50% chance at being just a cheap average starter which is what is needed given our cap situation.
We currently have signed Kirk Cousins to a fully guaranteed $84M deal. If you look at this blog at all you will see I was in staunch opposition to that deal however since the decision was made, you have to have a scheme, OL and cast to elevate him. He's not one of the QBs capable of winning with a sub top 15 OL (barring historic defensive play). Therefore it is my position that if we are unable to exit this draft with at minimum 2 OL starters in the 1st 3 rounds, it will be an abject failure and result in the Superbowl window (already perilously close to shut due to last years decision) being permanently shut. I'm partial to Risner (7.69s, 69 percentile) & Bradbury (7.41s, 91 percentile) in a trade back (most likely the only way we get 2 in the 1st 3 rounds) but the most important thing is two starters in the 1st 3 rounds.
Exiting the draft with the ability to run the football and hide Cousins' flaws in the pocket is THE key to this season and the last remaining year on Cousins deal in 2020-21 being contender years.
2018 Brian O'Neill (2) - 15 Games Played (GP)
2018 Colby Gossett (6) - 5 GP
2017 Pat Elflein (3) - 28 GP
2017 Danny Isidora (5) - 21 GP
2016 Willie Beavers (4) - 2 GP
2015 TJ Clemmings (4) - 41 GP
2015 Tyrus Thompson (5) - 0 GP
2015 Austin Shepherd (7) - 14 GP
2014 David Yankey (4) - 6 GP
2013 Jeff Baca (6) - 4 GP
2013 Travis Bond (7) - 2 GP
2012 Matt Kalil (1) - 82 GP
2011 Demarcus Love (6) - 0 GP
2011 Brandon Fusco (6) - 90 GP
2010 Chris DeGeare (5) - 8 GP
The only players that have seen consistent playing time are Matt Kalil, Brandon Fusco, TJ Clemmings, Pat Elflein and Brian O'Neill (5 of 15). Of those players all are top 4 round players except Fusco. Of those players only 2 are interior offensive lineman (iOL). The entire purpose of this article is to show that it is both incredibly difficult to draft iOL in the bottom 3-4 rounds than it is to draft them in the top 3-4 rounds and that the majority of iOL starters are selected on Day 1 & Day 2.
Legend
Rank Capable - The player had enough starts to qualify for a rank in PFF's system
Total Graded - All players that received a grade
Top 3 Rounds - Players selected in the top 3 rounds average grades, ranks and starts
* - Pro Bowl
+ - All Pro
In 2018 the PFF grades & total starts for the interior lineman (or converted offensive tackles (OT) to OG) taken in the 2018 NFL draft were as follows:
The prize of this group was clearly Nelson who became a pro bowler as a rookie but starter level players (which for our purposes will be a around a 60 grade and top 30 ranking per PFF) were found up until the 3rd round of this draft which is typical of the remaining data. There were 0 of 10 4th to 7th round players that were average starters for our purposes. There were 5 out of 10 1st to 3rd round players that were about average starters.
In 2017 the PFF grades & total starts for the interior lineman (or converted offensive tackles (OT) to OG) taken in the 2017 NFL draft were as follows:
Considering this is Year 2 for this group, its obvious this is the worse group in the sample. Chase Roullier being the best player is a testament to the dearth of iOL in the draft. The average selection was 134.6 which was the worst in the sample. There were 1 of 11 4th to 7th round players that were average starters. There were 0 out of 4 1st to 3rd round players that were about average starters.
In 2016 the PFF grades & total starts for the interior lineman (or converted OTs to OG) taken in the 2016 NFL draft were as follows:
Blythe at 248 is clearly one of the best OL steals in recent history. Wes Schweitzer is also a notable name taken at 195 that is a starter. Evan Boehm is also a starter level player in the 4th round however this draft (2016), 2015 & 2014 are the only drafts in the seven (7) year sample with more than one (1) player in the 4th becoming starter level. There were 3 of 14 4th to 7th round players that were average starters. There were 6 out of 9 1st to 3rd round players that were about average starters.
In 2015 the PFF grades & total starts for the interior lineman (or converted OTs to OG) taken in the 2015 NFL draft were as follows:
Patriots have a habit of taking OG early and often as they've made 4 iOL selections in the past 5 drafts which makes sense because outside of those 4 rounds its a shot in the dark as we're seeing with this data. Shaq Mason has helped ensure their OL is top flight and as I've learned in another study, there are very few teams that have made the playoffs and won a Superbowl with a bottom 15 OL per PFF. There were 2 of 13 4th to 7th round players that were average starters. There were 6 out of 8 1st to 3rd round players that were about average starters.
The NE Patriots have the best OL coach per media, here are their past drafts & trades:— 53 strong (@Heat_Vikings) March 11, 2019
'18 trade Brown (T)
'18 Wynn 1 (T)
'17 Garcia 3 (T)
'17 McDermott 6 (T)
'16 Thuney 3 (G)
'15 Karras 6 (G)
'15 Jackson 3 (G)
'15 Mason 4 (C)
'14 Stork 4 (C)
'14 Fleming 4 (T)
'14 Halapio 6 (C)
Dating back to 2009, the only teams to make the playoffs w/ a bottom 10 PFF graded OL or top 10 sacks allowed were the following teams:— 53 strong (@Heat_Vikings) August 19, 2018
- Vikings 2009. PFF #25, (Favre), Defense DVOA - 15
- Bears 2010, (Cutler), PFF #31, most sacks allowed, Defense DVOA - 5
- Steelers 2010, (Big Ben), PFF #32, 8th most sacks, Defense DVOA - 1— 53 strong (@Heat_Vikings) August 19, 2018
- Steelers 2011, (Big Ben), PFF #25, 10th most sacks, Defense DVOA - 7
- Broncos 2011, (Tebow), PFF #30, 9th most sacks, Defense DVOA - 19
- Giants 2011. (Manning), PFF #31, Defense DVOA - 20
- Colts 2012, (Luck), PFF #31, 9th most sacks, Defense DVOA - 31— 53 strong (@Heat_Vikings) August 19, 2018
- Colts 2013. (Luck), PFF #25, Defense DVOA - 16
- Seahawks 2013. PFF #27, (Wilson), Defense DVOA - 1
- Patriots 2014 (Brady) - PFF #23, 28th least sacks, Defense DVOA - 11
- Cardinals 2014 (Palmer/Stanton/Lindley) - PFF #24. 26th least sacks, Defense DVOA - 7— 53 strong (@Heat_Vikings) August 19, 2018
- Patriots 2015 (Brady), PFF #25, Defense DVOA - 12
- Vikings 2015 (Bridgewater) - PFF #14, 9th most sacks, Defense DVOA - 14
- Seahawks 2015 (Wilson), PFF #30, 7th most sacks Defense DVOA - 4— 53 strong (@Heat_Vikings) August 19, 2018
- Seahawks 2016 (Wilson), PFF #32, 6th most sacks, Defense DVOA - 5
- Dolphins 2016 (Tannehill/Moore), PFF #30, Defense DVOA - 19
Of all 16 teams over 9 years, only 2 were able to win a Superbowl, the Seahawks and Giants.— 53 strong (@Heat_Vikings) August 19, 2018
The Seahawks and Giants respectively had the #1 & #20 Defensive DVOA and were #7 & #7 in offensive DVOA with a points for ranking of #8 & #9 .
The average PFF OL ranking of Superbowl champions was #16. The average points for & against was #7 & #10 respectively. The average SB winner's OL gave up the 13th least number of sacks, the most being SEA with the 23rd most (44). The least was the NO with the 4th least sacks (20)— 53 strong (@Heat_Vikings) August 19, 2018
The teams in the playoffs this past year had the following OL ranks per PFF:
Patriots - 4
LA Rams - 6
Saints - 8
Bears - 11
Eagles - 5
Chargers - 30 *
Titans - 9
Chiefs - 13
Cowboys - 14
Colts - 3
Texans - 23*
Seahawks - 18*
What do all of these teams with below average OL play have in common? Top 10 DVOA defense, one top 5 QB (who only had a top 15 DVOA defense) and two top 10-15 QBs (no.7 HOU, no.8 LAC) depending on who you ask. For those keeping score out there the Vikings had the no.4 defense and the no. 18 offense with a no.29 PFF rated OL. I wont rank Kirk Cousins, you can if you wish and draw your own conclusions about the 2019-20 season prospects.
In 2014 the PFF grades & total starts for the interior lineman (or converted OTs to OG) taken in the 2014 NFL draft were as follows:
Another draft with multiple round 4 or lower starters (Bodine, Linsley & Paradis). There were 3 of 14 4th to 7th round players that were average starters. There were 7 out of 15 1st to 3rd round players that were about average starters. Zach Martin is the sole All Pro in this draft class.
In 2013 the PFF grades & total starts for the interior lineman (or converted OTs to OG) taken in the 2013 NFL draft were as follows:
The 2013 class only featured one (1) of 16 iOL drafted in the 4th to 7th rounds becoming a viable starter although Ryan Jensen played much better in 2017 and was a starter level player. There were 3 out of 8 1st to 3rd round players that were about average starters. Travis Frederick is the sole All Pro in this draft class. Dallas came away with two All Pros in back to back drafts, that's pretty impressive. Frederick being out for the year skewed this sample because if healthy he woluldve increased the successes.
In 2012 the PFF grades & total starts for the interior lineman (or converted OTs to OG) taken in the 2012 NFL draft were as follows:
The 2012 class featured zero (0) of 16 iOL drafted in the 4th to 7th rounds becoming a viable starter. There were 5 out of 9 1st to 3rd round players that were about average starters (included Osemele). David DeCastro and Keleche Osemele were the All Pros in this draft class. Osemele is the first player out of all 7 draft classes to be an All Pro that was not selected in the 1st round.
Out of all drafts the probability of the selecting a starter in the 4th to 7th rounds is as follows:
2012 - 0/16
2013 - 1/16 (JC Tretter - 4th)
2014 - 3/14 (Bodine - 4th, Linsley - 5th, Paradis - 6th)
2015 - 2/13 (Mason - 4th, Glowinski - 4th)
2016 - 3/14 (Boehm - 4th, Schweitzer - 6th, Blythe - 7th)
2017 - 1/11 (Roullier - 6th)
2018 - 0/10
Probability - 10/94 = 10.6%
Obviously 4th & 5th round probability is not equal to 6th or 7th round. Of the 10 late round picks five (5) were 4ths, one (1) 5th, three (3) 6ths and one (1) 7th.
In terms of the successes in the 1st to 3rd round selections:
2012 - 5/9
2013 - 3/8
2014 - 7/15
2015 - 6/8
2016 -6/9
2017 - 0/4
2018 - 5/10
Probability - 32/63 = 50.8%
Interesting trait similarities amongst the 4th to 7th round successes in regards to the 3 cone drill (per Mockdraftable & NFL.com):
JC Tretter - 7.48s (87%)
Bodine - 8.26s (2%) - outlier
Linsley - n/a
Paradis - 7.6s (72%)
Mason - 7.53s
Glowinski - 7.56s (79%)
Boehm - 7.52s (81%)
Schweitzer - n/a
Blythe - 7.52s (81%)
Roullier - 7.6s (72%)
Might be worth monitoring with whoever we pick in the draft since Elflein was 27 percentile (7.94s), Jeff Allen 30 percentile (8.04s), Pocic 36 percentile (7.89s), Jeremiah Poutasi 19 percentile (8.09s) and Amini Silatolu 29 percentile (7.95s) are examples of below average 3 cone times that are or might become busts in the 1st 3 rounds.
So we've come to the point of the article. If its so unlikely to draft iOL starters in the 4th to 7th rounds why is it that our GM has made one (1) selection in the top 3 rounds since 2010 and the Patriots (seemingly the smartest organization in the NFL) have selected 2 since 2014? Having selected eight (8) iOL since 2010 in the 4th to 7th round while hitting on one (1) player, Rick Spielman's hit rate currently stands at 12.5% which is above the probability (10.6%) but considering you need 2 OG on your starting OL and the player that was a hit is now currently not on the team, one can surmise why we are in this position of having the no.29 ranked PFF OL.
In my opinion as a fan of the team, I believe it is imperative (as I've been saying for 3 years straight), that we properly/appropriately address the OL. Last year Mr. Spielman knew or should have known that there was a possibility of a OL run since in 2017 when he barely escaped with Elflein, he made the mistake of assuming that OL would be available at our original pick by trading up for a RB (Dalvin Cook). In 2016 he chose "BPA", Mackenzie Alexander, when Cody Whitehair was on the board and in 2018 for the most recent OL run he chose another DB as "BPA" when Will Hernandez was on the board.
What you have to understand is that most bad teams have bad OL play, as I've shown with the statistic on who makes the playoffs the teams with the bad OL or QBs unable to improvise most likely WILL miss the playoffs, so when the beginning of the 2nd round happens, they'll take, you guessed it, OL. So waiting means missing on the top end talent that is most likely to be All Pro or Pro Bowl level and has a greater than 50% chance at being just a cheap average starter which is what is needed given our cap situation.
We currently have signed Kirk Cousins to a fully guaranteed $84M deal. If you look at this blog at all you will see I was in staunch opposition to that deal however since the decision was made, you have to have a scheme, OL and cast to elevate him. He's not one of the QBs capable of winning with a sub top 15 OL (barring historic defensive play). Therefore it is my position that if we are unable to exit this draft with at minimum 2 OL starters in the 1st 3 rounds, it will be an abject failure and result in the Superbowl window (already perilously close to shut due to last years decision) being permanently shut. I'm partial to Risner (7.69s, 69 percentile) & Bradbury (7.41s, 91 percentile) in a trade back (most likely the only way we get 2 in the 1st 3 rounds) but the most important thing is two starters in the 1st 3 rounds.
Exiting the draft with the ability to run the football and hide Cousins' flaws in the pocket is THE key to this season and the last remaining year on Cousins deal in 2020-21 being contender years.
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