Danielle Hunter

Danielle Hunter

 Born on October 29, 1994

 Athleticism




Danielle Hunter does not have an accurate match in terms of position but it speaks to his elite ahleticism that the nearest matches are a beast in Clowney and supremely atheltic TEs in David Njoku and Jimmy Graham.

Draft Profile

 During the lead up to the draft the following analysts had these opinions on Danielle Hunter:

NFL.com draft comparison - JPP

Quote by Mayock:

"This prospect was polarizing, positive or negative. There is no doubt he's a physical specimen with considerable upside, but he was nowhere near ready to come out of LSU. He still has to learn how to play football." -- Mike Mayock
Todd McShay quotes on Danielle Hunter declaring for the draft:

“He’s a player who has a lot of talent, but I also think he’s not ready,” McShay said. “If he was asking my advice, I’d tell him he needs to go back to school and continue to develop. I know he’s freakish, great in the weight room. I see flashes of it. I never thought this year that he developed.”


Draft recap

Danielle Hunter was projected as a 2nd-3rd rounder as we've noted above, however somehow in the 3rd round he was available at pick #88. After the pick was made the phone call was based around potential, Hunter being the kind of guy to build around and a discussion between Les Miles and Zimmer.


Clearly he was a 1st round talent but let's play a "name game" (dont all think of ESPN's Fantasy Focus Podcast at once) and choose some of the good players drafted ahead of Hunter in the 1st through 3rd rounds:

  • Winston or Hunter?
  • Mariota or Hunter? 
Those two are likely long term questions, 5 years from now we'll have an answer. Both QBs are likely franchise QBs but you can never be too sure. Plus if Hunter continues on this pace it won't matter.
  • Amari Cooper or Hunter?
  • Vic Beasley or Hunter?
  • Todd Gurley or Hunter?
  • Melvin Gordon or Hunter?
  • Kevin Johnson or Hunter?
  • Shaq Thompson or Hunter?
  • Byron Jones or Hunter?
  • Landon Collins or Hunter?
  • Donovan Smith or Hunter?
  • Ameer Abdullah or Hunter?
  • David Johnson or Hunter?

Personally I would only briefly think about it for three (3) players. Beasley, Byron Jones and Collins. RB's are never worth more than a top pass rusher as DE's can impact the entire game on their own while RB's need others in most cases to impact the game (OL, competent QB).

Grades

The "experts" mostly said good things about the draft haul and 3rd round pick however Pete Prisco labeled it as questionable.

 Youth

Here is a list of the current NFL defensive ends younger than Danielle Hunter (by at least 9 months):

  • Derek Barnett (21) - June 25, 1996 - Rookie
  • Joey Bosa (21) - July 11, 1995 - 2nd year player - 563 snaps
  • Myles Garrett (21) - December 29, 1995 - Rookie
  • Malik McDowell (21) - June 20, 1996 - Rookie
  • Takkarist McKinley (21) - November 2, 1995 - Rookie
  • Solomon Thomas (21) - December 20, 1995 - Rookie
All this adds up to Hunter being the most experienced, young defensive end starter in the National Football League


Power







Speed

Defending the run

There has been a lot of talk that due to his weight, 252 lbs., that Hunter will not be able to hold up in run support. Coming down to the end of the season Hunter was ranked as the 14th best edge run defender by PFF.

Earlier in the year Hunter played the run much better:




Craziest part is Hunter bulked up even more this summer, adding 5 lbs of muscle.




 Productivity

During Hunter's rookie year he wouldve had a limited number of snaps and was able to post a positive grade against the run but a negative grade rushing the passer. As the draft evaluators pointed out in their draft analysis, Hunter needed coaching to learn to play the DE position. Following his rookie year Hunter seemed poised for a break out year with the possibility of taking over the LDE spot for Brian Robison.








Danielle Hunter played 392 snaps in 2015 and 598 snaps per Football Outsiders in 2016, while Griffen (888) and Robison (837) had almost 48% and 40% more snaps respectively. The NFL leader in sacks with 15.5, Vic Beasley, played 671 snaps and had 30 pressures (2 more games worth of snaps than Hunter). If we extrapolate the numbers based on the assumption that Robison inherits Hunter's old role and Hunter inherits Robison's role we can assume these kind of numbers:

Sacks - 17.5
Pressures - 25

I would not be surprised if we were top 5 in the combined pressures/sacks/hits categories this year with our DE pairing along with Linval Joseph and Datone Jones/Tom Johnson/Brian Robison/Jaleel Johnson on the inside.

Pessimism on 3rd year breakout

Josh Zinger at Vikings Age believes that there will be a regression in store for Danielle Hunter based on his analysis of other players with similar statistics in their first two years.
While I think the information is very intriguing, I would be remiss without taking this a step further and looking at any injuries to the players themselves or production decreases by their defensive line counterparts that may have hindered their production (ending up as the sole focus of the OL). Also, I would like to take a look at their total pressures (data from 2009-16 only) and teammates pressure numbers. The following players between the ages of 22 and 23 were used as examples from the list:

  • JJ Watt (23) - 20.5 sacks/4 pressures (2012) to 10.5 sacks/12 pressures (2013) 
  • Aldon Smith (23)- 19.5 sacks/10 pressures (2012) to 8.5 sacks/8 pressures (2013)*
  • Von Miller (23) - 18.5 sacks/12 pressures (2012) to 5 sacks/4 pressures (2013)*
  • Shawne Merriman (22) - 17 sacks (2006) to 12.5 sacks (2007)
  • JPP (22) - 16.5 sacks/7 pressures (2011) to 6.5 sacks/10 pressures (2012)
    • Osi Umeniyora - 9 sacks/5 pressures to 6 sacks/12 pressures
    • Justin Tuck - 5 sacks/7 pressures to 4 sacks/3 pressures
    • 25th (27th in yards) ranked in points for to 12th? (31st yards)
  • Mario Williams (22) - 14 sacks (2006) to 12 sacks (2007)
    • Amobi Okoye - 5.5 sacks to 1 sack
    • DeMeco Ryans - 2.0 sacks to 1 sack
    • 22nd ranked in points for to 27th
  • Keith Hamilton (22) - 11.5 sacks (1993) to 6.5 sacks (1994)
    • Corey Miller - 6.5 sacks to 0 sack
    • Mike Fox - 4.5 sacks to 1 sack
    • 1st ranked in points for to 8th
  • Robert Quinn (22) - 10.5 sacks/6 pressures (2012) to 19 sacks/21 pressures (2013)
    • Chris Long - 11.5 sacks/15 pressures to 8.5 sacks/11 pressures
    • William Hayes - 7.0 sacks/3 pressures to 5.0 sacks/4 pressures
    • 14th ranked in points for to 13th
  • Terrell Suggs (22) - 10.5 sacks (2004) to 8 sacks (2005)
    • Anthony Weaver - 4 sacks to 2 sacks
    • Adalius Thomas - 8 sacks to 9 sacks
    • 6th ranked in points for to 10th 
  • Darrell Russell (22) - 10 sacks (1998) to 9.5 sacks (1999)
    • Lance Johnstone - 11 sacks to 10 sacks
    • Richard Harvey - 4 sacks to 2 sacks
    • 20th (5th in yards) ranked in points for to 16th ranked (10th in yards)
* - denotes injury shortened season

For the record only 8 of the 63 players in the sample were 22, there were 23, 23 year olds as the number of 24 year olds and up account for 32 of the 63 players in the sample.

The seven (7) twenty-two (22) year olds, excluding Hunter, in the sample averaged 10.6 sacks in their 3rd year.

For those 22 year olds within the sample, as the defense improved the sack numbers improved for all key contributors except for JPP and the 2012 Giants, Shawn Merriman and Darrell Russell which could be related to the defense still being worse but specifically in yards against, not points against.

Danielle Hunter had 18 pressures (#39th) in 2016 and 8 pressures (#135) in 2015, respectively. For a reference point Everson Griffen had 26 pressures and was 12th as a starter while Robison had 19 as the other starter for the Vikings last year.

 Conclusion

 Danielle Hunter's ceiling is likely HoF level. The next step in his development is more refining of technique but make no mistake the snaps will be handed over to him. With Robison's 837 snaps I believe Hunter could end up with a minimum of 15 sacks and 25 pressures. I believe his limited playing time production will carry over to starters production. Although his power moves will be fewer with starter's reps, due to the more snaps, the improved offense should compensate for the starters reps and the additional depth on the defensive line should also keep him fresh and free of double teams. Lastly being on an improved defensive unit should lift all boats, generating more sacks due to negative game script for the opponent.

Player Rank - Danielle Hunter #6 - Between Hunter and Diggs this team has massive break out potential. Health permitting I expect both to contribute to a playoff run.

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